B.C. MODELLING UPDATE

 

Dr. Bonnie Henry released updated modelling information at today’s press briefing, in advance of the announcement on Wednesday detailing the provincial government’s initial plans for reopening the economy.

The full statement from today’s press conference is available here. All the slides from today’s presentation are available here.

  • Most of the people who have tested positive in B.C. have been between the ages of 30 and 60.

  • More women have tested positive than men.

  • The percentage of hospitalizations shifts to older age groups, and more men than women have serious illness that requires hospitalizations.

  • In the ICU, most of the COVID-19 patients have been in their 60s and 70s. Again, more men required critical care than women.

  • However, younger people are not immune. People in their 20s and 30s have required hospitalizations and critical care as well.

  • For COVID-19 deaths, the majority of people have been in their 70s, 80s, and 90s. Again, a higher proportion of men.

  • The phenomenon of males comprising a higher percentage of seriously ill patients and deaths has been seen around the world. The reasons are still unclear.

  • As of April 28, 428 health care workers have tested positive for COVID-19. This represents 21 per cent of total cases.

  • Three additional risk factors have been a significant factor in determining who gets infected: age 50+, male, or at least one chronic condition. 1373 confirmed cases of COVID-19 have reported at least one of these risk factors.

We are currently at about 35 per cent of normal social interactions. Based upon the epidemiological models, Dr. Bonnie Henry has indicated the province will likely open that up to within a 40 to 60 per cent range. At that level, new COVID-19 cases would be manageable and not overwhelm the health care system. However, she made it clear that we must find the right balance to protest those most at risk, while allowing more social interaction and rebuilding the economy.

Here are the key principles moving forward:

  • Staying informed, being prepared and following public health advice.

  • Practicing good hygiene (hand hygiene, avoid touching face, respiratory etiquette, disinfect frequently touched surfaces).

  • Staying at home and away from others if feeling ill – not going to school/work.

  • Maintaining physical distancing outside the household (e.g. no hand shaking or hugging, small numbers of contacts and keeping a safe distance).

  • Making necessary contact safer with appropriate controls (e.g. plexiglass barriers, room design).

  • Increasing environmental cleaning at home and work.

  • Considering the use of non-medical masks in situations where physical distancing cannot be maintained (e.g. on transit, shopping).

  • Reducing personal non-essential travel.

The press conference to announce the province’s plan for moving forward is scheduled for Wednesday at 3pm.

This page last updated May 4, 2020 5:24pm PDT