DR. BONNIE HENRY’S MODELLING UPDATE

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry provided a modelling update today. The most noticeable trend with the steady increase of cases in the last week is the decrease in median age of people affected. The median age of new cases is now 48 years old. Full slides are available here.

  • Most new cases are now related to local cases and clusters. There are very few people who don’t have a link to a case or cluster in the province, despite the increasing numbers.

  • We continue to see introduction of new cases from international travel. Some of these cases are foreign workers who have become ill during quarantine, as well as Canadian returning from overseas. This includes recent cases from India and the US.

  • While cases are geographically distributed around the province, the bulk of new cases are still in the Lower Mainland.

  • The rapid increase in the younger age groups has shifted the proportion of cases to the 20 to 29 and 30 to 39 age groups. This is related to some of the social events we have reported on over the past few weeks.

  • We have moved from having household contacts as the main source of exposure to these social events where young people are getting exposed.

  • There have been very few infections in children under the age of 10. 78 young children have tested positive with two children hospitalized. This represents a total of two percent of all cases, but children under 10 make up nine percent of the general population.

  • For children ages 10 to 19, there have been 162 who have tested positive with one hospitalization. This represents four percent of the COVID-19 cases, but 10 percent of the general population.

  • The modelling (pictured above) shows we will continue to see more cases in BC. We are on an upward trajectory and that is concerning.

  • We are currently at about 70 percent of normal contact and we are moving away from strong to moderate social distancing measures to weak social distancing measures.

  • This means strong contact tracing is vital to provide that buffer so we can continue to manage transmission.

Dr. Henry also provided results of the provincial population health survey, “Your Story, Our Future”. More than 390,000 British Columbians responded to the survey. Some highlights:

  • West Asian, Latin American and South Asian respondents were the most likely to report increased difficulty meeting financial needs.

  • Latin American, West Asian and Black respondents were the most likely to report not working due to COVID-19.

  • Japanese, Korean, multi-ethnic and South Asian respondents were the most likely to report having difficulty accessing healthcare.

  • Individuals with incomes less than $60,000 had increased difficulty meeting financial need, were more food insecure, and were more likely to be out of work.

  • In households with school-aged children: 76 percent report their children’s learning was impaired; 78 percent had decreased connection with friends; 59 percent experienced increased child stress.

  • This shows challenges of the pandemic have not been shared equally.

We need to all be role models in our community and family to use tools we have to keep our communities safe. And we need to do this every single day.

This page last updated Aug 13, 2020 5:42pm PDT